Despite the much-awaited U.S spot Solana [SOL] ETF going live, the products haven’t prevented broader capital outflow from the altcoin during the crypto rout in late 2025.
Over the same period, the Realized Cap, or overall capital in SOL markets, dropped from nearly $97 billion to $88.8 billion. That’s about $8 billion in outflows despite the ETF’s debut.
This raised doubts about whether the widely cited $1,000 price target from some of Solana’s insiders was feasible.
Source: Glassnode
How high can SOL climb?
Amid the massive capital outflows, the SOL price has dropped by 50% from the late 2025 high of $253 to $127. Besides, the market appears to be pricing in a four-year cycle, which, if validated, would make 2026 bearish.
According to prediction site Kalshi, the market expected SOL to end this year around $100-$149 rather than above $450. There was a 75% chance the altcoin would hit $100 or more by the end of 2026.
For the price target above $450, the odds were 11%, underscoring a pessimistic outlook for a rally to $500, let alone the $1000 psychological level.
According to Standard Chartered, the $500 level could be hit by 2029. For VanEck, however, the altcoin could climb higher above $3.2K over the same period, citing ETF inflows.
But some of the potential long-term bullish catalysts, including the Firedancer, have not materialized as projected, noted Ryan Berckmans.
Source: X/Ryan Berckmans
Berckmans added that the Solana validator crisis could further dent the chain’s overall decentralization and trust. According to him, these factors could tip Ethereum to outperform SOL in the mid to long-term.
Options market suggests…
Meanwhile, on the Options market, traders were seeking upside exposure for short-dated expiries at press time, as evidenced by the slight recovery in the 25-Delta Skew at the 1-week and 1-month tenors.
Source: Laevitas
Put differently, traders’ market sentiment was neutral to bullish for SOL in the near term.
However, there was caution in the medium as illustrated by the negative 25-Delta Skew on the 3-month and 6-month tenors. It meant increased demand for puts over calls for downside protection.
In conclusion, the $1000 was quite an ambitious target for SOL, and it may remain elusive in 2026. In the near term, there was potential for a recovery, but only if the ongoing capital outflows were reversed.
Final Thoughts
- SOL’s $1,000 target seemed far-fetched, with the market pricing an 11% chance of a move above $450 in 2026.
- Over $8 billion in capital has been moved out of SOL’s market despite the ETF’s debut, and could further derail a strong rebound unless reversed.
